Monday, October 20, 2014

Introduction

  • Why does causality matter for policy making?
  • Why do we like experiments?
  • Why do we hate experiments?
  • Turning a weakness into a strength
  • What does policy analysis look like in the real world?

Causality Matters

But it's not everything

  • Decisions have to be made with best evidence available

Experiments, Yay!

Experiments, Boo!

John Conway's Game of Life

  • Simple rules in large systems create emergent properties that are complex and unpredictable
  • A simple example is John Conway's Game of Life, played on a two-dimensional grid
  • Any live cell with fewer than two neighbors dies
  • Any live cell with two or three neighbors lives
  • Any live cell with more than three live neighbors dies
  • Any dead cell with exactly three live neighbors becomes a live cell
  • These simple patterns result in emergent patterns that stabilize in unpredictable but orderly ways

Results

Policy is Not Unlike This

  • Start with simple rules
  • Add more simple rules
  • Regulated entities react to these rules
  • Observe emergent properties
  • Repeat

Quasi-Experiment Examples in the Wild

  • Regression discontinuity through ELL reclassification
  • Fixed effects regression through BLBC program offer
  • Propensity score matching for pre-college scholarship programs
  • Differences in differences evaluation of community learning centers (CLCs)

Why? Linked Administrative Systems

Why? Big Data

How does it work?

Caveats

Come work for DPI